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Q1 2006

Trade deficit continues to support bonds

Foreign Purchases of US Fixed Income Securities

In Q1 2006, the excess of US imports over exports continued to provide dollars to the rest of the world, which were invested in the US bond market.

Although foreign central banks reduced flows into US treasuries and agencies after the high point of 2004, the shortfall has been more than covered by flows into bonds from foreign private sources. The driving force behind foreign purchases of US bonds is not so much related to interest rates as to worldwide neo-mercantilist impulses to favor exporters.

Q1 2006

Demand for bonds still strong

Principal Corporate & Foreign Bond Buyers: Q1 2006

Despite worries about rising interest rates engineered by the Federal Reserve Bank, demand for corporate and foreign bonds in the US market continued firm through Q1 2006.

The principal bond buyers were foreign investors, life insurance companies, and money market funds.

Even with firm demand, corporate bond prices weakened in Q1 2006 because a significant increases in new offerings by corporations seeking to finance stock buybacks.

Q1 2006 Stock Buybacks

Buyback financing pushes up interest rates

Principal Issuers of Corporate & Foreign Bonds

Massive issuance of bonds by non-financial corporations, largely to finance an extraordinary level of stock buybacks, helped force bond interest rates upwards in Q1 2006. For years, the principal issuers of corporate bonds into the US market have been the financial sectors — mainly issuers of asset-backed securities raising funds for mortgages and consumer finance.

The annualized rate of bond issuance by non-financial corporate business rose to $240.4 billion in Q1 2006, four times the issuance rate of 2005.

Featured articles on inside pages

Stock buybacks

Buybacks + options + hedge funds

Stock buyback programs are a legalized form of market manipulation, sanctioned under SEC Rule 10b-18 and that serve to drive up the price of a company's stock and to give false value to executive stock options.
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Securities Analysis

Efficient Market Hypothesis: No proof

The Efficient Market Hypothesis continues to impede understanding of how capital markets work. This hypothesis suggests that world capital markets are guided by crowds of rational, competing, profit-maximizers, each trying to predict future market values of individual securities. The Efficient Market Hypothesis has never been proven.
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US Politics

What is the future of private pension plans?

Between 1999 and 2002, US private pension funds lost US$ 1.2 trillion in value. It would almost seem that pension fund managers had been speculating with retirement money, attempting to beat each others' short-term performance statistics, with little interest in safeguarding the assets of plan beneficiaries. More ...

US equities

GAO favors overly-optimistic projections

In a study of the effect of the retirement of Baby Boomers on the price of equities, the GAO assumed that equities will provide real returns of 7% over the next decades. This figure is often cited in Wall Street promotional literature, but has no scientific basis.
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US Bonds

The collapse of the dollar and US bonds?

The extreme spending of the Obama government, combined with irresponsible bank lending policies promoted by Barney Frank and Chris Dodd, portend rising interest rates, the collapse of the bond market, and the end of dollar supremacy. More ...

World Economy

What Is ‘International Liquidity’?

It used to be that the term 'international liquidity' meant the relative amount of resources available to a nation's monetary authorities that could be used to settle a balance of payments deficit. In the days of the gold standard, this would mean access to gold that could be used to redeem a nation's currency held by foreigners. More ...

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2010-09-07 16:04