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The threat of inflation

The collapse of the dollar and US bonds?

Million mark bills used as a notepad (Germany 1923)

The supremacy of the US dollar is not yet dead, but portents of a fatal cancer — inflation — are there for all to see.

The extreme, profligate spending of the Obama administration, combined with populist, irresponsible bank lending policies promoted by Barney Frank and Chris Dodd, portend rising interest rates, the collapse of the bond market, and the end of dollar supremacy.

Furthermore, a large part of the American electorate doesn’t understand or is unaware of what lies ahead.

Auction Market Preferred Shares

Why rating agencies overlook toxic assets

After the Crash of 2008, rating agencies were criticized

Failures of commercial rating services to do an adequate job have been widely recognized, in the wake of the Crash of 2008. Much of the criticism, however, has been directed to the conflicts of interests that are a characteristic of these services.

This article discusses other weaknesses of commercial publishers of investment information, such as the industrial nature of their operations and their marketing focus on traders rather than long-term investors. The case of Auction Market Preferred Shares, which failed in 2008, is covered in detail.

The decline of the dollar

Will China become America’s landlord?

Pudong District, Shanghai, China

Foreigners hold $16.9 trillion in dollar financial assets, accumulated through years of selling goods and services to the US. Profligate deficit spending by the Pelosi-Reid Congress increases the probability of dollar inflation.

If foreign governments were to convert their holdings of dollar financial assets into non-financial assets, like US REITs, they can guard against dollar inflation. They might also gain a position that, in the extreme, would be against US national security interests.

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Featured articles on inside pages

Stock buybacks

The Stock Buyback Era evaluated

The buyback era began when the SEC allowed issuers to manipulate prices to give value to executive options. Stock buybacks since 1982, in 2008 dollars, total $5.77 trillion. More ...

Securities Analysis

How much are US equities overvalued?

By 2007, commonsense analysis suggested that US equities were at least 40% overvalued. This conclusion was supported by many academics and by John Burr Williams's formula. More ...

US Politics

President Obama's Lincoln moment

In mid 2009, Barack Obama found that Lincoln's saying, "You can't fool all of the people all of the time," applied to his presidency. Profligate spending and unpopular health reform ended Obama's honeymoon. More ...

US equities

Households save more and invest in equities

Government economic stimulus programs that have sent money directly to US households have resulted in more saving and less spending. Low interest rates have encouraged individuals to move from debt instruments into equities. More ...

US Bonds

Bond demand exceeds supply for a decade

Over the decade, 1995-2004, the demand for US bonds of all types has surpassed new bond issues in eight of the last ten years. This is the reason that bond prices have held firm, even in 2003, when net new issues reached almost $1.8 trillion. More ...

World Economy

Signs of US losing its groove?

Thirty years ago, US income from abroad was more than double the amount of income that the US paid to the rest of the world. This year, or the next, this foreign income surplus may disappear forever. Is the US 'losing its groove'? More ...

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2010-12-31 16:01