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Is security analysis a science?

Predicting the future is often not scientific.

A pretense of scientific basis has weakened the usefulness of security analysis in the modern era. Fancy mathematics serve to cloud the minds of investors.

The collapse of Long Term Capital Management and the Crash of 2008 were assisted by the injection of ‘junk science’ into investment decisions.

Can (or should) security analysis be considered ’scientific’?

Featured articles on inside pages

Stock buybacks

Buybacks + options + hedge funds

Stock buyback programs are a legalized form of market manipulation, sanctioned under SEC Rule 10b-18 and that serve to drive up the price of a company's stock and to give false value to executive stock options.
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Securities Analysis

Crowd sourcing investment research

Free, easily available investment information is largely unexploited. This is because there is too much of it. Information, to be useful, must be processed. This processing has a time cost. This article describes how new technology allows securities research to evolve beyond the industrial techniques of the 20th century.
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US Politics

Why are the Super-Rich often liberals?

If we are to believe the old adage that, 'people vote their pocketbooks', why are so many of the Super-Rich ardent supporters of the Democratic Party? Why do the liberal Super-Rich seem to act in a way that is so contrary to their selfish interests and economic well-being? Here I show how capital flow analysis of the Federal Reserve flow of funds accounts provides an answer to this apparent conundrum. More ...

US equities

The productivity vs. population debate

The 'Baby Boomer Bomb' refers to the expected effect of the retirement of the Baby Boomer generation on capital markets, particularly equities. Two proposed 'solutions' to the problem are examined: Boomers being 'saved' by productivity and technology; and, alternatively, by selling their financial assets to the next generation..
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US Bonds

Bond demand exceeds supply for a decade

Over the decade, 1995-2004, the demand for US bonds of all types has surpassed new bond issues in eight of the last ten years. This is the reason that bond prices have held firm, even in 2003, when net new issues reached almost $1.8 trillion. More ...

World Economy

Signs of US losing its groove?

Thirty years ago, US income from abroad was more than double the amount of income that the US paid to the rest of the world. This year, or the next, this foreign income surplus may disappear forever. Is the US 'losing its groove'? More ...

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Capital Flow Watch has hundreds of articles on economics and investments.

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2010-08-13 13:07