Conservative Economics

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Category: Small Investors

This category includes articles that discuss the interests of small investors that accumulate assets in modest portfolios, funds, trusts, and savings accounts.

Social change:

Thriving without a credit card

The Crash of 2008 is restructuring the availability of consumer credit as well as household spending and saving habits.

Restricted availability of consumer credit and a greater propensity of households to save before spending, may result in less use of credit cards and smaller mortgages. A return, even partial, to saving habits of the 1950s could stimulate economic recovery.

The popular Dave Ramsey radio and TV shows suggest that a societal change in this direction is at least possible. Lower levels of personal debt would boost the economy and make people happier.

US stock market

Baby Boomers’ retirement prospects

Boomers' retirement may be less than expected

A study by Daniel R. Ackerman, CPA, suggests that Baby Boomers who count on the long-term equity returns of 8% may be disappointed, either because returns are simply not justified, or because, if they are, the supply of equities from Boomers trying to exit the market during retirement will be so great as to depress stock prices.

Reliance on income-based investment, rather than capital gains, may be a more prudent strategy.

US Equities 2005

Mutual fund sales fall to 3-year low

Mutual fund sales drop

Net sales of mutual fund shares dropped to the lowest point in the three years 2003-2005, with net sales of $257.5 billion. Net sales of mutual funds fell almost 14% from 2004 to 2005.

Weak fund sales in combination with historical over-valuation of stocks and the impending retirement of baby boomers, are a portent of weakness in the US equity market.

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Featured articles on inside pages

Stock buybacks

Warren Buffett attacks buyback schemes

In the 2005 Berkshire-Hathaway annual report, Warren Buffet points to the unethical aspects of the buyback-option schemes so common in the US stock market. He noted that "Too often ... the deck is stacked against investors when it comes to the CEO’s pay. ... every dime paid out in dividends reduces the value of all outstanding options"
More ...

Securities Analysis

Efficient Market Hypothesis: No proof

The Efficient Market Hypothesis continues to impede understanding of how capital markets work. This hypothesis suggests that world capital markets are guided by crowds of rational, competing, profit-maximizers, each trying to predict future market values of individual securities. The Efficient Market Hypothesis has never been proven.
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US Politics

America grows with legal immigration

Legal immigration has resulted in solid growth of the US population, despite declining birth rates and an increasing number of old people. This is good news for investors in stocks and real estate. Illegal immigration appears to be less than 5% of legal immigration, and legal immigration is at an all time high.
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US equities

Sarbanes-Oxley and the shortage of equities

The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, by discouraging companies to go public, will exacerbate the shortage of equities, with a negative effect on the US stock market, although this was not the intent of its authors. Poorly drafted, ill-conceived, and unfair this law does little to protect investors.
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US Bonds

Bond demand exceeds supply for a decade

Over the decade, 1995-2004, the demand for US bonds of all types has surpassed new bond issues in eight of the last ten years. This is the reason that bond prices have held firm, even in 2003, when net new issues reached almost $1.8 trillion. More ...

World Economy

What Is ‘International Liquidity’?

It used to be that the term 'international liquidity' meant the relative amount of resources available to a nation's monetary authorities that could be used to settle a balance of payments deficit. In the days of the gold standard, this would mean access to gold that could be used to redeem a nation's currency held by foreigners. More ...

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2011-09-22 16:03