This is a 'game-changer'
By John Schroy, on June 12th, 2010 |

The current economic crisis, which started with the market crash of 2008, is a ‘game-changer’ that requires effective leadership with a firm grasp of economic reality and a willingness to introduce sensible bipartisan reforms in many areas of financial markets.
Unfortunately, these conditions are unlikely to be met before 2016. In the meantime, history suggests that there are likely to be many false rallies and dashed hopes before true recovery begins.
The long road to recovery
By John Schroy, on June 1st, 2010 |

Over the years, I’ve read quite a number of books on investment. Not all are worth the effort.
Among those that I consider valuable, I would cite Graham & Dodd’s “Security Analysis”, “Fooled by Randomness” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Wu and Zakon’s “Elements of Investments”, and “The Great Depression: A Diary” by Benjamin Roth. The latter brings a message that is especially relevant in these trying times — a warning that early optimists regarding recovery are often as badly burnt as those who failed to foresee the original crisis.
Smooth sailing unlikely
By John Schroy, on May 20th, 2010 |

Markets can be inefficient for different reasons and persist for long periods. The transition between one type of inefficient market to the next is usually a period of strife and uncertainty which may last five to fifteen years. Looking back at how the economy emerged from previous transitions, I note that in each new period, equity prices started at reasonable levels. This was true at the beginning of the Roaring Twenties, the Post WW II Period, and the Reagan Era. It is as if markets, recognizing prior inefficiencies ‘reset’ and start over. However, for the current market to ‘reset’, it will be necessary for equity prices to fall considerably, which will have dire consequences.
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