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Category: Macro and Micro Economics

General articles on economic topics and economic theory.

This is a 'game-changer'

Economic recovery may wait until 2016

Economic systems and institutions tend to gradually corrode and become increasingly inefficient and unstable

The current economic crisis, which started with the market crash of 2008, is a ‘game-changer’ that requires effective leadership with a firm grasp of economic reality and a willingness to introduce sensible bipartisan reforms in many areas of financial markets.

Unfortunately, these conditions are unlikely to be met before 2016. In the meantime, history suggests that there are likely to be many false rallies and dashed hopes before true recovery begins.

The long road to recovery

Why false bull markets are likely

Reading the glyphs that predict future markets is a fool's errand that tempts us all.

Over the years, I’ve read quite a number of books on investment. Not all are worth the effort.
Among those that I consider valuable, I would cite Graham & Dodd’s “Security Analysis”, “Fooled by Randomness” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Wu and Zakon’s “Elements of Investments”, and “The Great Depression: A Diary” by Benjamin Roth. The latter brings a message that is especially relevant in these trying times — a warning that early optimists regarding recovery are often as badly burnt as those who failed to foresee the original crisis.

Smooth sailing unlikely

Inefficient market portends bumpy recovery

Inefficient markets have consequences that may be prickly for incautious investors.

Markets can be inefficient for different reasons and persist for long periods. The transition between one type of inefficient market to the next is usually a period of strife and uncertainty which may last five to fifteen years. Looking back at how the economy emerged from previous transitions, I note that in each new period, equity prices started at reasonable levels. This was true at the beginning of the Roaring Twenties, the Post WW II Period, and the Reagan Era. It is as if markets, recognizing prior inefficiencies ‘reset’ and start over. However, for the current market to ‘reset’, it will be necessary for equity prices to fall considerably, which will have dire consequences.

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Featured articles on inside pages

Stock buybacks

The Stock Buyback Era evaluated

The buyback era began when the SEC allowed issuers to manipulate prices to give value to executive options. Stock buybacks since 1982, in 2008 dollars, total $5.77 trillion. More ...

Securities Analysis

Can index funds protect you against inflation?

Historical evidence suggests that equities do not offer fool-proof protection against inflation. Inflation brings high interest rates, confounds accounting practices, and is associated with bad government. More ...

US Politics

The decline of mainstream media

In September 2009, President Obama dominated television in his attempt to sell his government-run health plan, despite massive public opposition. Mainstream media has falling revenues and market share as people turn to unbiased sources. More ...

US equities

Households save more and invest in equities

Government economic stimulus programs that have sent money directly to US households have resulted in more saving and less spending. Low interest rates have encouraged individuals to move from debt instruments into equities. More ...

US Bonds

The collapse of the dollar and US bonds?

The extreme spending of the Obama government, combined with irresponsible bank lending policies promoted by Barney Frank and Chris Dodd, portend rising interest rates, the collapse of the bond market, and the end of dollar supremacy. More ...

World Economy

Working off the US trade deficit

Foreigners hold $16.8 trillion in US financial assets as a result of selling more goods to Americans than they buy from them. Since the 'deficit' is in dollars, the US has no problem in 'paying it off'. More ...

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2011-04-01 16:02