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Category: Security Analysis
The long road to recovery

Why false bull markets are likely

Reading the glyphs that predict future markets is a fool's errand that tempts us all.

Over the years, I’ve read quite a number of books on investment. Not all are worth the effort.
Among those that I consider valuable, I would cite Graham & Dodd’s “Security Analysis”, “Fooled by Randomness” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Wu and Zakon’s “Elements of Investments”, and “The Great Depression: A Diary” by Benjamin Roth. The latter brings a message that is especially relevant in these trying times — a warning that early optimists regarding recovery are often as badly burnt as those who failed to foresee the original crisis.

Post Modern Security Analysis

Is security analysis a science?

Predicting the future is often not scientific.

A pretense of scientific basis has weakened the usefulness of security analysis in the modern era. Fancy mathematics serve to cloud the minds of investors.

The collapse of Long Term Capital Management and the Crash of 2008 were assisted by the injection of ‘junk science’ into investment decisions.

Can (or should) security analysis be considered ’scientific’?

The investment profession:

A securities analyst’s greatest challenge

Lack of dedication has long been the bane of the security analyst.

The Crash of 2008 raised questions as to the competence of many who work in the profession of security analysis. There are dozens of schools providing professionals with training and certification in this field. However, know-how is not enough.

Commonsense and hard work can be more important than theoretical training and the ability to use the terminology.

This article discusses an endemic problem: Laziness.

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Featured articles on inside pages

Stock buybacks

Stock buybacks, refusing to die, live on

In Q1 2009, stock buybacks came back, driving up equity prices and sparking a rally by dominating a thin market. These equity repurchases were financed from depreciation and bond issues. More ...

Securities Analysis

Jeff Skilling explains US corporate ethics

Unfortunately for society, Jeff Skilling of Enron told the truth according to tenets of moral relativism learned at the Harvard Business School and with McKinsey and Company, when, on being sentenced to decades in prison, he said, "That's the way the game is played. You win some, you lose some."
More ...

US Politics

What is the future of private pension plans?

Between 1999 and 2002, US private pension funds lost US$ 1.2 trillion in value. It would almost seem that pension fund managers had been speculating with retirement money, attempting to beat each others' short-term performance statistics, with little interest in safeguarding the assets of plan beneficiaries. More ...

US equities

Professor Siegel’s Epiphany

The topic "Baby Boom — Baby Bomb?" was debated by Michael Milken and Professor Jeremy Siegel in April 2006. This debate was featured in BusinessWeek in the article, "When Boomers Cash Out: A buy-and-hold legend sees tough times ahead." Professor Siegel is the guru of the Common Stock Legend.
More ...

US Bonds

Bond demand exceeds supply for a decade

Over the decade, 1995-2004, the demand for US bonds of all types has surpassed new bond issues in eight of the last ten years. This is the reason that bond prices have held firm, even in 2003, when net new issues reached almost $1.8 trillion. More ...

World Economy

What Is ‘International Liquidity’?

It used to be that the term 'international liquidity' meant the relative amount of resources available to a nation's monetary authorities that could be used to settle a balance of payments deficit. In the days of the gold standard, this would mean access to gold that could be used to redeem a nation's currency held by foreigners. More ...

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2010-08-06 16:05