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US Bond Market 1995-2004

Bond demand exceeds supply for a decade

Supply & Demand: US Bonds

Over the decade, 1995-2004, the demand for US bonds of all types has surpassed new bond issues in eight of the last ten years. This is the reason that bond prices have held firm, even in 2003, when net new issues reached almost $1.8 trillion.

In most years, buyers had to go to the secondary market to get all the bonds they wanted. On the demand side, steady buying pressure, accounting for about two-thirds of the market, has come from foreign investors, insurance companies, federal, state, and local governments, and banks and savings institutions — each acting for difference reasons.

US Demographics

America grows with legal immigration

Fall of Saigon (1975): Vietnamese refugees landing on US aircraft carrier.

Legal immigration has resulted in solid growth of the US population, despite declining birth rates and an increasing number of old people. This is good news for investors in stocks and real estate . Despite loud railing against illegal immigration by Bill O’Reilly, Lou Dobbs, Michelle Malkin, and Pat Buchanan, the real story is the size and scope of legal immigration. Illegal immigration appears to be less than 5% of legal immigration, and legal immigration is at an all time high.

US Trade Deficit

Interest rates have been falling for decades

As the trade deficit has increased, US bond interest rates have fallen.

Since the 1980s, the US. trade deficit has been a constant force in the American economy, rising more some years than others, while corporate bond yields have been generally falling.

Because rising trade deficits lead to increased demand for fixed income securities, and because issuers have not fully met this demand, the price of bonds has risen for twenty years, while bond yields have fallen.

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2011-11-25 13:03