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| Subject: capital flow analysis Capital Flow Analysis uses national flow of funds accounts to explain supply and demand in capital markets. The system was developed by John Oswin Schroy and published on the Center for Capital Flow Analysis in 2004. The goal is to forecast price trends for broad categories of securities, such as equities or bonds, over the medium and longer term. Capital Flow Analysis also refers to the study of national flow of funds accounts or similar statistics, but specifically the information regarding activities of issuers of securities and investors. Capital Flow Analysis is a technique, with axioms and methods. The purpose is to forecast general trends in securities markets. Capital Flow Analysis, is based on the assumption that longer-term trends in securities markets are not random, but are the result of capital flows that can be described and, to a certain degree, predicted. Capital Flow Analysis enhances Modern Portfolio Theory by ‘explaining’ price trends that would otherwise be unexplained. By combining Capital Flow Analysis and Modern Portfolio Theory, an investor may improve returns. Capital Flow Analysis bears some similarity to behavioral economics in that it departs from neoclassical economics assumptions regarding rational behavior. The CFA Irrationality Axiom resembles the ‘bounded rationality’ of behavioral economists. Capital Flow Analysis, however, is a practical technique rather than an economic theory. It is based on market observation rather than academic economics. Capital Flow Analysis By John Schroy, on March 10th, 2006 |  Leave a comment  In 1993, after thousands of hours of committee work by economists and bureaucrats from all nations, the United Nations, with the blessing of the International Monetary Fund, issued a recommendation for a System of National Accounts (known as SNA 1993). Compared to the Federal Reserve National Flow of Funds Accounts, the United Nations SNA 1993 is not a product that is ready for prime time. March 10th, 2006 | Print Article |  Email Article |  Topics: capital flow analysis, China, IMF, Macro Economic Theory, Morris Copeland, World Bank | Category: World Economy | Leave a comment |  Short urlFund management By John Schroy, on March 7th, 2006 | Leave a comment  Legg Mason, the giant asset management company that was recently sold off by Citigroup, issued a report on January 10, 2006 by Michael Mauboussin, Chief Investment Strategist, entitled, “Clear Thinking About Share Repurchases”. The general tenor of the Legg Mason commentary seems to be favorable towards buybacks, especially extremely large buybacks that are aggressively pursued and that, presumably, are more effective in jacking up stock prices and making investment managers look good. March 7th, 2006 | Print Article | Email Article | Topics: capital flow analysis, Citigroup, debt/equity ratio, dividends, executive stock options, intrinsic value, Legg Mason, market manipulation, mutual funds, Stock Buybacks | Category: Stock Buybacks | Leave a comment | Short urlCapital Flow Analysis By John Schroy, on March 5th, 2006 | Leave a comment  Prudential Equity Group Research LLC published a “Flow of Funds Chartbook” as of August 16, 2004, that was still available in PDF format on the their website at no charge in March 2006. This valuable statistical presentation was edited by the well-known economist, Dr. Ed Yardeni and has 35 pages of attractive charts on selected data series from the Federal Reserve National Flow of Funds Accounts. March 5th, 2006 | Print Article | Email Article | Topics: capital flow analysis | Category: Economic Theory | Leave a comment | Short urlFeatured articles on inside pages
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