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Subject: complexity

Complexity is a term used with reference to Post Modern Security Analysis and collaborative research, indicating the problems that arise from excessive complexity in modern financial markets, including such aspects as ‘too complex to manage’, derivatives, and the myriad products of financial engineering.

The Post Stock Buyback Era

Seeking investment opportunities

On a tightrope ... without a net.

The Crash of 2008 signaled a turning point in capital markets. The stock buyback era seemed to have ended. The Efficient Market Hypothesis was discredited. The inability of market experts and major institutions to place a fair value on thousands of securities indicated basic problems in security analysis and the handling of freely available information.

This article describes new challenges facing fundamental security analysts in the early 21st century, and the consequent opportunities.

The McKinsey Heresy

Is big bank complexity irreversible?

In 1956, General Motors had profits of $1.1 billion

The root problem with big banks today is organizational and product line complexity. Excessive complexity in banks can be traced to the reorganization of Citibank in 1956, under Walter Wriston, following the advice of McKinsey and Company.

Under the McKinsey structure, banks were transformed into industrial-type marketing institutions with matrix organization by product line. Bank managers were paid to meet budgetary targets, rather than for being prudent bankers.

The decline of Citicorp

Some banks are too complex to manage

KISS: Keep it simple, Stupid!

It is no secret that Citicorp no longer earns the same respect in financial circles as in days of yore. The problem is excessive complexity. This article describes the simplicity of the Citibank operation in 1956 when the bank was the world’s most powerful financial institution.

It will not be easy, maybe not possible, for Citicorp to simplify operations and relearn the principles of sound banking.

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Featured articles on inside pages

Stock buybacks

WSJ exposes the 9/11 caper

In a major exposé of misused executive options, the Wall Street Journal ran a front page article, reporting that as stocks sank after the the 9/11 attacks, scores of companies rushed to issue options to top officials. Some executives reaped millions.
More ...

Securities Analysis

Efficient Market Hypothesis: No proof

The Efficient Market Hypothesis continues to impede understanding of how capital markets work. This hypothesis suggests that world capital markets are guided by crowds of rational, competing, profit-maximizers, each trying to predict future market values of individual securities. The Efficient Market Hypothesis has never been proven.
More ...

US Politics

President Obama and the Lincoln Bible

The Crash of 2008 put Barack Obama in the Oval Office and was the culmination of two secular financial trends. Americans now have an untested, inexperienced leader, with strange radical friends and a leftist deficit spending agenda. More ...

US equities

Households save more and invest in equities

Government economic stimulus programs that have sent money directly to US households have resulted in more saving and less spending. Low interest rates have encouraged individuals to move from debt instruments into equities. More ...

US Bonds

The collapse of the dollar and US bonds?

The extreme spending of the Obama government, combined with irresponsible bank lending policies promoted by Barney Frank and Chris Dodd, portend rising interest rates, the collapse of the bond market, and the end of dollar supremacy. More ...

World Economy

Signs of US losing its groove?

Thirty years ago, US income from abroad was more than double the amount of income that the US paid to the rest of the world. This year, or the next, this foreign income surplus may disappear forever. Is the US 'losing its groove'? More ...

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2011-03-28 16:01