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Subject: covariance

In probability theory and statistics, covariance is a measure of how much two variables change together.

In finance, the beta (?) of a stock or portfolio is a number describing the relation of its returns with that of the financial market as a whole.
An asset with a beta of 0 means that its price is not at all correlated with the market. A positive beta means that the asset generally follows the market. A negative beta shows that the asset inversely follows the market; the asset generally decreases in value if the market goes up and vice versa.[2]
Correlations are evident between companies within the same industry, or even within the same asset class (such as equities), as was demonstrated in the Wall Street crash of 1929. This correlated risk, measured by Beta, creates almost all of the risk in a diversified portfolio.
The beta coefficient is a key parameter in the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). It measures the part of the asset’s statistical variance that cannot be mitigated by the diversification provided by the portfolio of many risky assets, because it is correlated with the return of the other assets that are in the portfolio. Beta can be estimated for individual companies using regression analysis against a stock market index. (Wikipedia Jan 2010)

Post Modern Security Analysis

Fish schools, covariance, and DYOR

Security market observes have long noted that investors seem to jump hither and yon, like the synchronized swimming of schools of fish.

This phenomenon is given the mathematical term ‘covariance’ and a numerical measure called ‘beta’.

Covariance is a central concept in Modern Portfolio Theory, and also in Technical Analysis with the saying ‘the trend is your friend’.

The Post Stock Buyback Era

Seeking investment opportunities

On a tightrope ... without a net.

The Crash of 2008 signaled a turning point in capital markets. The stock buyback era seemed to have ended. The Efficient Market Hypothesis was discredited. The inability of market experts and major institutions to place a fair value on thousands of securities indicated basic problems in security analysis and the handling of freely available information.

This article describes new challenges facing fundamental security analysts in the early 21st century, and the consequent opportunities.

Stock buybacks and options

The yin-yang that rules the market

Yin and Yang

Stock buybacks and stock options are two dominant interlocked forces that have determined the direction of prices in the US equity market since 1982. Corporate management undertakes a stock-buyback program to manipulate the price of company stock upwards and benefits from this action by exercising executive stock options. Price increases caused by buybacks of one company reflect on the prices of stocks of other companies.

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Featured articles on inside pages

Stock buybacks

Stock buybacks dry up

Since 1982, US equities have been driven upwards by stock buybacks. Federal Reserve statistics show corresponding sales of stocks as executives exercised options to take advantage of manipulated prices. More ...

Securities Analysis

Mark-to-market nonsense

Banks, by their nature, are insolvent, requiring government guarantees of their liabilities to protect against bank runs. Over the last fifty years, the percentage of bank liabilities guaranteed by the government has fallen considerably, while banks, free from the shackles of the Glass-Steagall Act, have become increasingly complex.
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US Politics

President Obama's Lincoln moment

In mid 2009, Barack Obama found that Lincoln's saying, "You can't fool all of the people all of the time," applied to his presidency. Profligate spending and unpopular health reform ended Obama's honeymoon. More ...

US equities

The productivity vs. population debate

The 'Baby Boomer Bomb' refers to the expected effect of the retirement of the Baby Boomer generation on capital markets, particularly equities. Two proposed 'solutions' to the problem are examined: Boomers being 'saved' by productivity and technology; and, alternatively, by selling their financial assets to the next generation..
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US Bonds

Bond demand exceeds supply for a decade

Over the decade, 1995-2004, the demand for US bonds of all types has surpassed new bond issues in eight of the last ten years. This is the reason that bond prices have held firm, even in 2003, when net new issues reached almost $1.8 trillion. More ...

World Economy

Signs of US losing its groove?

Thirty years ago, US income from abroad was more than double the amount of income that the US paid to the rest of the world. This year, or the next, this foreign income surplus may disappear forever. Is the US 'losing its groove'? More ...

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2010-08-25 16:03