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Subject: efficient market hypothesis

In finance, the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) asserts that financial markets are “informationally efficient”, or that prices on traded assets (e.g., stocks, bonds, or property) already reflect all known information, and instantly change to reflect new information. Therefore, according to theory, it is impossible to consistently outperform the market by using any information that the market already knows, except through luck. Information or news in the EMH is defined as anything that may affect prices that is unknowable in the present and thus appears randomly in the future. The hypothesis has been attacked lately by critics who blame belief in rational markets for much of the current financial crisis, with noted financial journalist Roger Lowenstein recently declaring “The upside of the current Great Recession is that it could drive a stake through the heart of the academic nostrum known as the efficient-market hypothesis.” (Wikipedia Jan 2010)

Fat-Finger Thursday:

Traders violate First Law of Robotics

Mindless robotic trading on stock exchanges led to Fat Finger Thursday.

On May 6, 2010, the Dow Jones Stock Index, at about 2:30 PM, fell almost one thousand points, before recovering when traders discovered that there was no real news justifying the crash in prices. The day will forever be know as ‘Fat-Finger Thursday’, in remembrance of the first inclination to blame the crash on supposed mistaken data entry by some trader, somewhere. Later, the authorities came out and declared that there was no “fat finger”, but that the cause for the anomaly was unknown and under investigation.

Deflation Economics

When cash is an investment strategy

Sometimes even cash is not a good idea. "Money to burn" showing Confederate Dollars.

Deflation is said to occur when general price levels fall. The last important example of general deflation in the United States occurred during the Great Depression. Federal Reserve officials and central bankers around the world often regard deflation as a greater risk than inflation. Under the Obama administration, US central bankers are now wary of both deflation and inflation.

Post Modern Security Analysis:

Creating a research community

Finding a collaborative research group ...

Post Modern Security Analysis calls for collaborative research of open source investment information.

But how can such collaboration be organized?

This article describes how the wiki concept, Capital Market Taxonomy, and pre-defined topical outlines facilitate the process.

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Featured articles on inside pages

Stock buybacks

Stock buybacks dry up

Since 1982, US equities have been driven upwards by stock buybacks. Federal Reserve statistics show corresponding sales of stocks as executives exercised options to take advantage of manipulated prices. More ...

Securities Analysis

Jeff Skilling explains US corporate ethics

Unfortunately for society, Jeff Skilling of Enron told the truth according to tenets of moral relativism learned at the Harvard Business School and with McKinsey and Company, when, on being sentenced to decades in prison, he said, "That's the way the game is played. You win some, you lose some."
More ...

US Politics

America grows with legal immigration

Legal immigration has resulted in solid growth of the US population, despite declining birth rates and an increasing number of old people. This is good news for investors in stocks and real estate. Illegal immigration appears to be less than 5% of legal immigration, and legal immigration is at an all time high.
More ...

US equities

Sarbanes-Oxley and the shortage of equities

The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, by discouraging companies to go public, will exacerbate the shortage of equities, with a negative effect on the US stock market, although this was not the intent of its authors. Poorly drafted, ill-conceived, and unfair this law does little to protect investors.
More ...

US Bonds

The collapse of the dollar and US bonds?

The extreme spending of the Obama government, combined with irresponsible bank lending policies promoted by Barney Frank and Chris Dodd, portend rising interest rates, the collapse of the bond market, and the end of dollar supremacy. More ...

World Economy

Working off the US trade deficit

Foreigners hold $16.8 trillion in US financial assets as a result of selling more goods to Americans than they buy from them. Since the 'deficit' is in dollars, the US has no problem in 'paying it off'. More ...

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2010-10-28 15:55