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Subject: executive stock options

An employee stock option is a call option on the common stock of a company, issued as a form of non-cash compensation. Restrictions on the option (such as vesting and limited transferability) attempt to align the holder’s interest with those of the business’ shareholders. If the company’s stock rises, holders of options generally experience a direct financial benefit. This gives employees an incentive to behave in ways that will boost the company’s stock price.
Employee stock options are mostly offered to management as part of their executive compensation package. They may also be offered to non-executive level staff, especially by businesses that are not yet profitable, insofar as they may have few other means of compensation. Alternatively, employee-type stock options can be offered to non-employees: suppliers, consultants, lawyers and promoters for services rendered. Employee stock options are similar to warrants, which are call options issued by a company with respect to its own stock. (Wikipedia Jan 2010)

A suckers rally?

Barriers to a bear market recovery

Flood barriers on the Thames

How long will the rally in US stocks that started in early 2009 last? Remember the ’suckers rally’ of 1932-1933 that signaled the end to the Great Depression too early.

There are three major barriers to a prolonged recovery in stock prices: a trillion dollars or so of executive stock options; the cost of TARP repayments; and the investment needs of retiring Baby Boomers.

The threat of inflation

The collapse of the dollar and US bonds?

Million mark bills used as a notepad (Germany 1923)

The supremacy of the US dollar is not yet dead, but portents of a fatal cancer — inflation — are there for all to see.

The extreme, profligate spending of the Obama administration, combined with populist, irresponsible bank lending policies promoted by Barney Frank and Chris Dodd, portend rising interest rates, the collapse of the bond market, and the end of dollar supremacy.

Furthermore, a large part of the American electorate doesn’t understand or is unaware of what lies ahead.

The end of an era?

Stock buybacks dry up

Is the buyback party over?

Since 1982, US equities markets have been driven upwards by corporate stock buybacks. Federal Reserve flow of funds accounts showed corresponding sales of stocks by executives exercising options to take advantage of manipulated prices.

The Crash of 2008 changed this pattern, driving equity prices down so that executive options were “below water”. Companies reduced buybacks due to tight credit and the inability of executives to benefit in the depressed market.

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2010-10-29 16:02