Conservative Economics

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Subject: Inflation

In economics, inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. When the price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation is also an erosion in the purchasing power of money – a loss of real value in the internal medium of exchange and unit of account in the economy. A chief measure of price inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index (normally the Consumer Price Index) over time.
Inflation can have positive and negative effects on an economy. Negative effects of inflation include a decrease in the real value of money and other monetary items over time; uncertainty about future inflation may discourage investment and saving, and high inflation may lead to shortages of goods if consumers begin hoarding out of concern that prices will increase in the future. Positive effects include a mitigation of economic recessions, and debt relief by reducing the real level of debt.
Economists generally agree that high rates of inflation and hyperinflation are caused by an excessive growth of the money supply. Views on which factors determine low to moderate rates of inflation are more varied. Low or moderate inflation may be attributed to fluctuations in real demand for goods and services, or changes in available supplies such as during scarcities, as well as to growth in the money supply. However, the consensus view is that a long sustained period of inflation is caused by money supply growing faster than the rate of economic growth.
Today, most mainstream economists favor a low steady rate of inflation. Low (as opposed to zero or negative) inflation may reduce the severity of economic recessions by enabling the labor market to adjust more quickly in a downturn, and reduce the risk that a liquidity trap prevents monetary policy from stabilizing the economy. The task of keeping the rate of inflation low and stable is usually given to monetary authorities. Generally, these monetary authorities are the central banks that control the size of the money supply through the setting of interest rates, through open market operations, and through the setting of banking reserve requirements. (Wikipedia Jan 2010)

Q3 2005

Life insurers still favor bonds

Life Insurers' Assets

Life insurance companies invest pension and life insurance reserves primarily in bonds, according to Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Table F 117 for Q3 2005. Although favoring agency securities and treasuries in 2002, life insurers quickly returned to their traditional investment behavior of buying mostly corporate bonds.

Since 1997, pension funds have become the principal business of life insurance companies, as indicated by the relative size of life insurance and pension funds reserves.

US Trade Deficit

Interest rates have been falling for decades

As the trade deficit has increased, US bond interest rates have fallen.

Since the 1980s, the US. trade deficit has been a constant force in the American economy, rising more some years than others, while corporate bond yields have been generally falling.

Because rising trade deficits lead to increased demand for fixed income securities, and because issuers have not fully met this demand, the price of bonds has risen for twenty years, while bond yields have fallen.

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2010-10-28 15:44