Conservative Economics

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Subject: Interest Rates

The cost of borrowing money, that may be made reference to in securities transactions and financial product terms.

US Equity Market

US equities in peril; dividends slashed!

Cash dividends are slashed ... will the market notice?

Over the last five quarters, the annual rate of dividends paid by US non-financial corporations has fallen by two-thirds, from $462.2 billion to $160.5 billion.

The apparent reason for this negative trend is the intent of corporate management to radically increase stock buybacks in order to boost the value of executive options.

Investment 1995 - 2004

Home equity beats stocks

Home Equity vs. Stock Holdings

In 1995, US households held similar amounts of assets in home equity and corporate stocks: US$ 4.3 trillion in stocks and US$ 4.7 trillion in home equity. Over the decade, the situation changed dramatically, so that by 2004, households held US$ 4.8 trillion more in home equity than in corporate stocks.

This difference came about because of the crash in the stock market in 2000-2001 and because of the steady increase in home values throughout the decade. Low interest rates and easier terms on home mortgages pushed prices of residential real estate upwards, while individuals favored indirect investment in stocks through mutual funds over direct holdings.

US Trade Deficit

Interest rates have been falling for decades

As the trade deficit has increased, US bond interest rates have fallen.

Since the 1980s, the US. trade deficit has been a constant force in the American economy, rising more some years than others, while corporate bond yields have been generally falling.

Because rising trade deficits lead to increased demand for fixed income securities, and because issuers have not fully met this demand, the price of bonds has risen for twenty years, while bond yields have fallen.

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Featured articles on inside pages

Stock buybacks

Stock buybacks and dividend equivalency

Corporations have argued that stock buybacks are equivalent to dividends. This article explains why this is not true and why suggesting buyback-dividend equivalency may constitute fraud.
More ...

Securities Analysis

Efficient Market Hypothesis: No proof

The Efficient Market Hypothesis continues to impede understanding of how capital markets work. This hypothesis suggests that world capital markets are guided by crowds of rational, competing, profit-maximizers, each trying to predict future market values of individual securities. The Efficient Market Hypothesis has never been proven.
More ...

US Politics

President Obama's Lincoln moment

In mid 2009, Barack Obama found that Lincoln's saying, "You can't fool all of the people all of the time," applied to his presidency. Profligate spending and unpopular health reform ended Obama's honeymoon. More ...

US equities

Professor Siegel’s Epiphany

The topic "Baby Boom — Baby Bomb?" was debated by Michael Milken and Professor Jeremy Siegel in April 2006. This debate was featured in BusinessWeek in the article, "When Boomers Cash Out: A buy-and-hold legend sees tough times ahead." Professor Siegel is the guru of the Common Stock Legend.
More ...

US Bonds

The collapse of the dollar and US bonds?

The extreme spending of the Obama government, combined with irresponsible bank lending policies promoted by Barney Frank and Chris Dodd, portend rising interest rates, the collapse of the bond market, and the end of dollar supremacy. More ...

World Economy

Working off the US trade deficit

Foreigners hold $16.8 trillion in US financial assets as a result of selling more goods to Americans than they buy from them. Since the 'deficit' is in dollars, the US has no problem in 'paying it off'. More ...

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2010-10-29 16:02