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Subject: irrationality axiom

An axiom of Capital Flow Analysis (developed by John Oswin Schroy) that “Market players have reasons for buying and selling investment assets, but these reasons are not always ‘economically rational’ and change from time to time.
People have many motives for trading in the capital markets that are not related to maximization of financial wealth, the choice between consumption and spending, or logical expectations of future returns.” (Source: Center for Capital Flow Analysis)

Fat-Finger Thursday:

Traders violate First Law of Robotics

Mindless robotic trading on stock exchanges led to Fat Finger Thursday.

On May 6, 2010, the Dow Jones Stock Index, at about 2:30 PM, fell almost one thousand points, before recovering when traders discovered that there was no real news justifying the crash in prices. The day will forever be know as ‘Fat-Finger Thursday’, in remembrance of the first inclination to blame the crash on supposed mistaken data entry by some trader, somewhere. Later, the authorities came out and declared that there was no “fat finger”, but that the cause for the anomaly was unknown and under investigation.

Stock buybacks 2005

Executives shun equities in their portfolios

Will there be alot of homes for sale in the Hamptons?

A careful examination of the flow of fund accounts for 2005 suggests that probably not more than ten to twenty percent of proceeds from the exercise of stock options were channeled back into the stock market. In order for ordinary investors to benefit from the buyback option programs, they would have to sell 3.5% of their indirect holdings in equities and put the money elsewhere.

Without doubt, such sudden ‘rational behavior’ would crash the stock market.

Research notes

How was Capital Flow Analysis developed?

John Schroy

Capital Flow Analysis is a technique for interpreting flow of funds accounts developed by John Oswin Schroy over the period 1998-2004 and published on the website, “Center for Capital Flow Analysis”.

This article provides background notes that describe how, where, and by whom the methods of Capital Flow Analysis were developed.

Featured articles on inside pages

Stock buybacks

The Stock Buyback Era evaluated

The buyback era began when the SEC allowed issuers to manipulate prices to give value to executive options. Stock buybacks since 1982, in 2008 dollars, total $5.77 trillion. More ...

Securities Analysis

Does ‘SEC Total Return’ protect investors?

Millions of investors put money for retirement into mutual funds selected on the basis of "SEC total returns" and the name of the fund. This article explains how the SEC allows funds to use this misleading statistic to the detriment of investors and to the benefit of fund managers. More ...

US Politics

Why Congress won't kill ACORN

Closely connected with President Obama, the ACORN group of "community organizers" has drawn censure from the Democrat-controlled Congress as a result of investigative reporting by James O'Keefe and Hannah Giles. More ...

US equities

GAO favors overly-optimistic projections

In a study of the effect of the retirement of Baby Boomers on the price of equities, the GAO assumed that equities will provide real returns of 7% over the next decades. This figure is often cited in Wall Street promotional literature, but has no scientific basis.
More ...

US Bonds

Bond demand exceeds supply for a decade

Over the decade, 1995-2004, the demand for US bonds of all types has surpassed new bond issues in eight of the last ten years. This is the reason that bond prices have held firm, even in 2003, when net new issues reached almost $1.8 trillion. More ...

World Economy

Signs of US losing its groove?

Thirty years ago, US income from abroad was more than double the amount of income that the US paid to the rest of the world. This year, or the next, this foreign income surplus may disappear forever. Is the US 'losing its groove'? More ...

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2010-08-13 13:09