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Subject: John Burr Williams

John Burr Williams (1900 – September 15, 1989), one of the first economists to view stock prices as determined by “intrinsic value”, is recognised as a founder and developer of fundamental analysis. He is best known for his 1938 text “The Theory of Investment Value”, based on his Ph.D. thesis, which was amongst the first to articulate the theory of Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) based valuation, and in particular, dividend based valuation. (Wikipedia Jan 2010)

Post Modern Security Analysis

Moving beyond Graham & Dodd

A security analyst is like a detective.

Security Analysis is the study of facts about negotiable instruments for the purpose of determining whether a particular instrument is appropriate for a specific investor at a particular time and the intrinsic value of the security compared to its market price, if any.

The technique has evolved over time with the changing nature of information.

In the 21st century, with a flood of open source information and increasingly complex, global markets, new approaches are necessary.

Securities Analysis

How much are US equities over-valued?

A rush to exit the stock market ...

Commonsense analysis shows that US equities are at least 40% overvalued, a conclusion supported by many academics and John Burr Williams’s formula.

This suggests that many retirement plans, based on equity investments, may be in trouble, if (or better, when) stocks fall to reasonable values.

This article, using John Burr Williams’ famous formula, shows how the market may be valued.

US Equity Market

US equities in peril; dividends slashed!

Cash dividends are slashed ... will the market notice?

Over the last five quarters, the annual rate of dividends paid by US non-financial corporations has fallen by two-thirds, from $462.2 billion to $160.5 billion.

The apparent reason for this negative trend is the intent of corporate management to radically increase stock buybacks in order to boost the value of executive options.

Featured articles on inside pages

Stock buybacks

Stock buybacks dry up

Since 1982, US equities have been driven upwards by stock buybacks. Federal Reserve statistics show corresponding sales of stocks as executives exercised options to take advantage of manipulated prices. More ...

Securities Analysis

Crowd sourcing investment research

Free, easily available investment information is largely unexploited. This is because there is too much of it. Information, to be useful, must be processed. This processing has a time cost. This article describes how new technology allows securities research to evolve beyond the industrial techniques of the 20th century.
More ...

US Politics

The decline of mainstream media

In September 2009, President Obama dominated television in his attempt to sell his government-run health plan, despite massive public opposition. Mainstream media has falling revenues and market share as people turn to unbiased sources. More ...

US equities

Stocks surge on spurious earnings

In Q1 2009, stock buybacks came back, driving up equity prices and sparking a rally by dominating a thin market. These equity repurchases were financed from depreciation reserves and bond issues. More ...

US Bonds

Bond demand exceeds supply for a decade

Over the decade, 1995-2004, the demand for US bonds of all types has surpassed new bond issues in eight of the last ten years. This is the reason that bond prices have held firm, even in 2003, when net new issues reached almost $1.8 trillion. More ...

World Economy

Working off the US trade deficit

Foreigners hold $16.8 trillion in US financial assets as a result of selling more goods to Americans than they buy from them. Since the 'deficit' is in dollars, the US has no problem in 'paying it off'. More ...

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2011-05-25 16:01