Conservative Economics

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Subject: John Maynard Keynes

John Maynard Keynes, 1st Baron Keynes, CB (pronounced /?ke?nz/; 5 June 1883 – 21 April 1946) was a British economist whose ideas have been a central influence on modern macroeconomics, both in theory and practice. He advocated interventionist government policy, by which governments would use fiscal and monetary measures to mitigate the adverse effects of business cycles, economic recessions, and depressions. His ideas are the basis for the school of thought known as Keynesian economics, and its various offshoots.
In the 1930s, Keynes spearheaded a revolution in economic thinking, overturning the older ideas of neoclassical economics that held that free markets would automatically provide full employment as long as workers were flexible in their wage demands. Following the outbreak of World War II, Keynes’s ideas concerning economic policy were adopted by leading Western economies. During the 1950s and 1960s, the success of Keynesian economics was so resounding that almost all capitalist governments adopted its policy recommendations. In 1999, Time magazine included Keynes in their list of the 100 most important and influential people of the 20th century, commenting that; “His radical idea that governments should spend money they don’t have may have saved capitalism”.
Keynes’s influence waned in the 1970s, partly as a result of problems that began to afflict the Anglo-American economies from the start of the decade, and partly due to critiques from Milton Friedman and other economists who were pessimistic about the ability of governments to regulate the business cycle with fiscal policy. However, the advent of the global financial crisis in 2007 has caused a resurgence in Keynesian thought. Keynesian economics has provided the theoretical underpinning for the plans of President Barack Obama, Prime Minister Gordon Brown and other global leaders to ease the recession.
Keynes is widely considered the father of modern macroeconomics, and by various commentators such as economist John Sloman, the most influential economist of the 20th century. In addition to being an economist, Keynes was also a civil servant, a patron of the arts, a director of the Bank of England, an advisor to several charitable trusts, a writer, a private investor, an art collector, and a farmer. Keynes was bisexual, openly acknowledging the homosexual relationships he had with other men. In 1925, he married the Russian ballerina Lydia Lopokova. Of towering stature, Keynes stood at six foot, six inches. (Wikipedia Jan 2010)

After the Crash

The Economist trashes modern economics

Follow the horsemen

The financial crisis of 2008 caused many to suspect that something is wrong with ‘Modern Economic Theory’. That economists are not, in fact, ’scientists’ is generally recognized. In July 2009, the Economist magazine ran a front-page story, reporting widespread disenchantment with mainstream economic thought.

Strictly speaking, modern economics is not a science, but rather a belief system, like a religion.

Nobel prizes in ‘economic science’ for work not based on the scientific method are like giving Nobel peace prizes to terrorists.

The Efficient Market Hypothesis

How an academic scribbler ate your pension

University of Chicago Library

The Crash of 2008 was exacerbated by a FASB mark-to-market rule that required financial institutions to write down assets below commonsense valuation. As John Maynard Keynes remarked, the problem was an academic scribbler’s unproven theory, some forty years ago.

That ’scribbler’ was Eugene Fama and his unproven idea was called “The Efficient Market Hypothesis”. The Crash of 2008 did much to discredit this harmful musing that supported Modern Portfolio Theory, mark-to-mark accounting, and unmanaged index funds.

Stock repurchases

Buyback bear rages: the worst is yet to come

The Buyback Bear Rages

On September 17, 2007, Capital Flow Watch called the top of the Buyback Bubble, issuing a warning that stock prices might be in for a sharp fall. Throughout the last quarter of 2007, stock prices fell as funding for buybacks began to dry up, while executives rushed to exercise stock options before they were ‘under water’.

Equity sales by households are expected to continue, until executive options are ‘under water’ or until corporations run out of funding for stock buybacks, whichever is first.

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Featured articles on inside pages

Stock buybacks

The Stock Buyback Era evaluated

The buyback era began when the SEC allowed issuers to manipulate prices to give value to executive options. Stock buybacks since 1982, in 2008 dollars, total $5.77 trillion. More ...

Securities Analysis

Efficient Market Hypothesis: No proof

The Efficient Market Hypothesis continues to impede understanding of how capital markets work. This hypothesis suggests that world capital markets are guided by crowds of rational, competing, profit-maximizers, each trying to predict future market values of individual securities. The Efficient Market Hypothesis has never been proven.
More ...

US Politics

Why are the Super-Rich often liberals?

If we are to believe the old adage that, 'people vote their pocketbooks', why are so many of the Super-Rich ardent supporters of the Democratic Party? Why do the liberal Super-Rich seem to act in a way that is so contrary to their selfish interests and economic well-being? Here I show how capital flow analysis of the Federal Reserve flow of funds accounts provides an answer to this apparent conundrum. More ...

US equities

GAO favors overly-optimistic projections

In a study of the effect of the retirement of Baby Boomers on the price of equities, the GAO assumed that equities will provide real returns of 7% over the next decades. This figure is often cited in Wall Street promotional literature, but has no scientific basis.
More ...

US Bonds

Bond demand exceeds supply for a decade

Over the decade, 1995-2004, the demand for US bonds of all types has surpassed new bond issues in eight of the last ten years. This is the reason that bond prices have held firm, even in 2003, when net new issues reached almost $1.8 trillion. More ...

World Economy

Signs of US losing its groove?

Thirty years ago, US income from abroad was more than double the amount of income that the US paid to the rest of the world. This year, or the next, this foreign income surplus may disappear forever. Is the US 'losing its groove'? More ...

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2010-11-12 16:03