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Subject: pension plans

A retirement plan is an arrangement to provide people with an income during retirement when they are no longer earning a steady income from employment. Often retirement plans require both the employer and employee to contribute money to a fund during their employment in order to receive defined benefits upon retirement. Funding can be provided in other ways, such as from labor unions, government agencies, or self-funded schemes. Pension plans are therefore a form of “deferred compensation”. (Wikipedia Feb 2010)

Phony financial reform

Dodd-Frank won’t make better markets

Financial markets can be extremely complex, with many areas that can fail and break.

Unfortunately, instead of a ‘game-changing’ confidence-inspiring reform, the Obama administration presented the United States with the Dodd-Frank Act — a legislative miscarriage that has the potential to hold back recovery and impair the position of New York as a world financial center for decades — unless repealed or drastically amended.

Social change:

Thriving without a credit card

The Crash of 2008 is restructuring the availability of consumer credit as well as household spending and saving habits.

Restricted availability of consumer credit and a greater propensity of households to save before spending, may result in less use of credit cards and smaller mortgages. A return, even partial, to saving habits of the 1950s could stimulate economic recovery.

The popular Dave Ramsey radio and TV shows suggest that a societal change in this direction is at least possible. Lower levels of personal debt would boost the economy and make people happier.

Smooth sailing unlikely

Inefficient market portends bumpy recovery

Inefficient markets have consequences that may be prickly for incautious investors.

Markets can be inefficient for different reasons and persist for long periods. The transition between one type of inefficient market to the next is usually a period of strife and uncertainty which may last five to fifteen years. Looking back at how the economy emerged from previous transitions, I note that in each new period, equity prices started at reasonable levels. This was true at the beginning of the Roaring Twenties, the Post WW II Period, and the Reagan Era. It is as if markets, recognizing prior inefficiencies ‘reset’ and start over. However, for the current market to ‘reset’, it will be necessary for equity prices to fall considerably, which will have dire consequences.

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Featured articles on inside pages

Stock buybacks

Stock buybacks, refusing to die, live on

In Q1 2009, stock buybacks came back, driving up equity prices and sparking a rally by dominating a thin market. These equity repurchases were financed from depreciation and bond issues. More ...

Securities Analysis

Efficient Market Hypothesis: No proof

The Efficient Market Hypothesis continues to impede understanding of how capital markets work. This hypothesis suggests that world capital markets are guided by crowds of rational, competing, profit-maximizers, each trying to predict future market values of individual securities. The Efficient Market Hypothesis has never been proven.
More ...

US Politics

What is the future of private pension plans?

Between 1999 and 2002, US private pension funds lost US$ 1.2 trillion in value. It would almost seem that pension fund managers had been speculating with retirement money, attempting to beat each others' short-term performance statistics, with little interest in safeguarding the assets of plan beneficiaries. More ...

US equities

GAO favors overly-optimistic projections

In a study of the effect of the retirement of Baby Boomers on the price of equities, the GAO assumed that equities will provide real returns of 7% over the next decades. This figure is often cited in Wall Street promotional literature, but has no scientific basis.
More ...

US Bonds

Bond demand exceeds supply for a decade

Over the decade, 1995-2004, the demand for US bonds of all types has surpassed new bond issues in eight of the last ten years. This is the reason that bond prices have held firm, even in 2003, when net new issues reached almost $1.8 trillion. More ...

World Economy

Signs of US losing its groove?

Thirty years ago, US income from abroad was more than double the amount of income that the US paid to the rest of the world. This year, or the next, this foreign income surplus may disappear forever. Is the US 'losing its groove'? More ...

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