Conservative Economics

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Subject: Ronald Reagan

Ronald Wilson Reagan (February 6, 1911– June 5, 2004) was the 40th President of the United States (1981–1989) and the 33rd Governor of California (1967–1975). Prior to his political career Reagan was also a famous motion picture actor and president of the Screen Actors Guild.
Born in Tampico, Illinois, Reagan moved to Los Angeles, California in the 1930s. He began a career as an actor, first in films and later television, appearing in 52 movie productions and gaining enough success to become a household name. Though often described as a B film actor, he starred in Knute Rockne, All American and Kings Row. Reagan served as president of the Screen Actors Guild, and later spokesman for General Electric (GE); his start in politics occurred during his work for GE. Originally a member of the Democratic Party, he switched to the Republican Party in 1962. After delivering a rousing speech in support of Barry Goldwater’s presidential candidacy in 1964, he was persuaded to seek the California governorship, winning two years later and again in 1970. He was defeated in his run for the Republican presidential nomination in 1968 as well as 1976, but won both the nomination and election in 1980.
As president, Reagan implemented sweeping new political and economic initiatives. His supply-side economic policies, dubbed “Reaganomics”, advocated reduced business regulation, controlling inflation, reducing growth in government spending, and spurring economic growth through tax cuts. In his first term he survived an assassination attempt, took a hard line against labor unions, and ordered military actions in Grenada. He was reelected in a landslide in 1984, proclaiming it was “Morning in America”. His second term was primarily marked by foreign matters, namely the ending of the Cold War, the bombing of Libya, and the revelation of the Iran-Contra affair. Publicly describing the Soviet Union as an “evil empire”, he supported anti-Communist movements worldwide and spent his first term forgoing the strategy of détente by ordering a massive military buildup in an arms race with the USSR. Reagan negotiated with Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev, culminating in the INF Treaty and the decrease of both countries’ nuclear arsenals.
Reagan left office in 1989. In 1994, the former president disclosed that he had been diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease earlier in the year; he died ten years later at the age of 93. He ranks highly among former U.S. presidents in terms of approval rating, but has a more mixed perception in presidential surveys. (Wikipedia Feb 2010)

Smooth sailing unlikely

Inefficient market portends bumpy recovery

Inefficient markets have consequences that may be prickly for incautious investors.

Markets can be inefficient for different reasons and persist for long periods. The transition between one type of inefficient market to the next is usually a period of strife and uncertainty which may last five to fifteen years. Looking back at how the economy emerged from previous transitions, I note that in each new period, equity prices started at reasonable levels. This was true at the beginning of the Roaring Twenties, the Post WW II Period, and the Reagan Era. It is as if markets, recognizing prior inefficiencies ‘reset’ and start over. However, for the current market to ‘reset’, it will be necessary for equity prices to fall considerably, which will have dire consequences.

Deflation Economics

When cash is an investment strategy

Sometimes even cash is not a good idea. "Money to burn" showing Confederate Dollars.

Deflation is said to occur when general price levels fall. The last important example of general deflation in the United States occurred during the Great Depression. Federal Reserve officials and central bankers around the world often regard deflation as a greater risk than inflation. Under the Obama administration, US central bankers are now wary of both deflation and inflation.

Stagflation watch

When will inflation kick in?

Forecasting when inflation will kick in is impossible, because the political situation is so uncertain and conflicted.

The lack of fiscal restraint of President Obama on the healthcare issue, the ’stimulus bill’, and other ‘progressive’ legislation in the pipeline, combined with the jobs-firsts-inflation-last attitude of Fed Chairman Bernanke — leave little room to doubt that sooner or later the United States is likely to enter the realm of double-digit inflation.

Inflation is likely be the final and deadliest blow to the retirement dreams of many Baby Boomers. When the stock market crashes, one can hope for a recovery some day. With inflation, the losses are permanent and final.

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Featured articles on inside pages

Stock buybacks

WSJ exposes the 9/11 caper

In a major exposé of misused executive options, the Wall Street Journal ran a front page article, reporting that as stocks sank after the the 9/11 attacks, scores of companies rushed to issue options to top officials. Some executives reaped millions.
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Securities Analysis

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Free, easily available investment information is largely unexploited. This is because there is too much of it. Information, to be useful, must be processed. This processing has a time cost. This article describes how new technology allows securities research to evolve beyond the industrial techniques of the 20th century.
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US Politics

President Obama's Lincoln moment

In mid 2009, Barack Obama found that Lincoln's saying, "You can't fool all of the people all of the time," applied to his presidency. Profligate spending and unpopular health reform ended Obama's honeymoon. More ...

US equities

Do stocks offer protection against inflation?

There is a common belief that a managed, diversified portfolio of US common stocks provides protection against inflation. However, there is reason to question whether this protection currently exists.
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US Bonds

Bond demand exceeds supply for a decade

Over the decade, 1995-2004, the demand for US bonds of all types has surpassed new bond issues in eight of the last ten years. This is the reason that bond prices have held firm, even in 2003, when net new issues reached almost $1.8 trillion. More ...

World Economy

What Is ‘International Liquidity’?

It used to be that the term 'international liquidity' meant the relative amount of resources available to a nation's monetary authorities that could be used to settle a balance of payments deficit. In the days of the gold standard, this would mean access to gold that could be used to redeem a nation's currency held by foreigners. More ...

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2010-11-10 16:04