Conservative Economics

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Subject: S&P 500

The S&P 500 is a free-float capitalization-weighted index published since 1957 of the prices of 500 large-cap common stocks actively traded in the United States. The stocks included in the S&P 500 are those of large publicly held companies that trade on either of the two largest American stock market companies; the NYSE Euronext and the NASDAQ OMX.
After the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 is the most widely followed index of large-cap American stocks. It is considered a bellwether for the American economy, and is included in the Index of Leading Indicators. Some mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, and other funds such as pension funds, are designed to track the performance of the S&P 500 index. Hundreds of billions of US dollars have been invested in this fashion.
The index is the best known of the many indices owned and maintained by Standard & Poor’s, a division of McGraw-Hill. S&P 500 refers not only to the index, but also to the 500 companies that have their common stock included in the index. The ticker symbol for the S&P 500 index varies. Some examples of the symbol are ^GSPC, .INX, and $SPX. The stocks included in the S&P 500 index are also part of the broader S&P 1500 and S&P Global 1200 stock market indices. (Wikipedia Feb 2010)

Smooth sailing unlikely

Inefficient market portends bumpy recovery

Inefficient markets have consequences that may be prickly for incautious investors.

Markets can be inefficient for different reasons and persist for long periods. The transition between one type of inefficient market to the next is usually a period of strife and uncertainty which may last five to fifteen years. Looking back at how the economy emerged from previous transitions, I note that in each new period, equity prices started at reasonable levels. This was true at the beginning of the Roaring Twenties, the Post WW II Period, and the Reagan Era. It is as if markets, recognizing prior inefficiencies ‘reset’ and start over. However, for the current market to ‘reset’, it will be necessary for equity prices to fall considerably, which will have dire consequences.

Commonsense Economics:

The Inefficient Market Hypothesis

The dead Efficient Market Hypothesis has left behind much harmful junk in financial space

Eventually, at some point, without an efficient market, common stocks become mere baseball cards.

Sooner or later, some Baby Boomer, pressed to pay his bills in retirement, will find that one can’t live off the dividends of common stock and that when everyone is trying to cash out their holdings at the same time, market prices plunge to levels that seemed inconceivable for generations. But it will simply be the cost of allowing an inefficient market to flourish for so long.

This article discusses the concept of inefficient markets and the practical consequences.

Securities Analysis

How much are US equities over-valued?

A rush to exit the stock market ...

Commonsense analysis shows that US equities are at least 40% overvalued, a conclusion supported by many academics and John Burr Williams’s formula.

This suggests that many retirement plans, based on equity investments, may be in trouble, if (or better, when) stocks fall to reasonable values.

This article, using John Burr Williams’ famous formula, shows how the market may be valued.

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Featured articles on inside pages

Stock buybacks

Stock buybacks, refusing to die, live on

In Q1 2009, stock buybacks came back, driving up equity prices and sparking a rally by dominating a thin market. These equity repurchases were financed from depreciation and bond issues. More ...

Securities Analysis

Is big bank complexity irreversible?

The root problem with big banks today is organizational and product line complexity. Excessive complexity in banks can be traced to the reorganization of Citibank in 1956, under Walter Wriston, following the advice of McKinsey and Company.
More ...

US Politics

President Obama and the Lincoln Bible

The Crash of 2008 put Barack Obama in the Oval Office and was the culmination of two secular financial trends. Americans now have an untested, inexperienced leader, with strange radical friends and a leftist deficit spending agenda. More ...

US equities

Do stocks offer protection against inflation?

There is a common belief that a managed, diversified portfolio of US common stocks provides protection against inflation. However, there is reason to question whether this protection currently exists.
More ...

US Bonds

Bond demand exceeds supply for a decade

Over the decade, 1995-2004, the demand for US bonds of all types has surpassed new bond issues in eight of the last ten years. This is the reason that bond prices have held firm, even in 2003, when net new issues reached almost $1.8 trillion. More ...

World Economy

What Is ‘International Liquidity’?

It used to be that the term 'international liquidity' meant the relative amount of resources available to a nation's monetary authorities that could be used to settle a balance of payments deficit. In the days of the gold standard, this would mean access to gold that could be used to redeem a nation's currency held by foreigners. More ...

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Stock Quotes

DJIA10337.51  chart +0.17%
NASDAQ2185.65  chart -0.21%
S&P 5001084.28  chart +0.06%

Ftse 1005275.44  chart +0.18%
Dax6110.41  chart -0.40%
Cac 403610.91  chart -0.28%

Nikkei 2259253.46  chart +0.44%
Hang Seng Index21071.57  chart -0.16%
Straits Times Ind2939.97  chart +0.44%

Eur To Usd1.28  chart +0.44%
Usd To Jpy86.22  chart +0.44%
Gbp To Usd1.56  chart +0.44%

2010-08-13 13:08