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Subject: Stock Buybacks

In some countries, including the United States and the United Kingdom, corporations can buy back their own stock in a share repurchase, also known as a stock repurchase or share buyback. There has been a meteoric rise in the use of share repurchases in the U.S. in the past twenty years, from $5b in 1980 to $349b in 2005. A share repurchase distributes cash to existing shareholders in exchange for a fraction of the firm’s outstanding equity. That is, cash is exchanged for a reduction in the number of shares outstanding. The firm either retires the shares or keeps them as treasury stock, available for re-issuance. Under U.S. corporate law there are five primary methods of stock repurchase: open market, private negotiations, repurchase put rights, and two variants of self-tender repurchase, a fixed price tender offer and a Dutch auction. (Wikipedia Feb 2010)

The threat of inflation

The collapse of the dollar and US bonds?

Million mark bills used as a notepad (Germany 1923)

The supremacy of the US dollar is not yet dead, but portents of a fatal cancer — inflation — are there for all to see.

The extreme, profligate spending of the Obama administration, combined with populist, irresponsible bank lending policies promoted by Barney Frank and Chris Dodd, portend rising interest rates, the collapse of the bond market, and the end of dollar supremacy.

Furthermore, a large part of the American electorate doesn’t understand or is unaware of what lies ahead.

The end of an era?

Stock buybacks dry up

Is the buyback party over?

Since 1982, US equities markets have been driven upwards by corporate stock buybacks. Federal Reserve flow of funds accounts showed corresponding sales of stocks by executives exercising options to take advantage of manipulated prices.

The Crash of 2008 changed this pattern, driving equity prices down so that executive options were “below water”. Companies reduced buybacks due to tight credit and the inability of executives to benefit in the depressed market.

Stock repurchases

Buyback bear rages: the worst is yet to come

The Buyback Bear Rages

On September 17, 2007, Capital Flow Watch called the top of the Buyback Bubble, issuing a warning that stock prices might be in for a sharp fall. Throughout the last quarter of 2007, stock prices fell as funding for buybacks began to dry up, while executives rushed to exercise stock options before they were ‘under water’.

Equity sales by households are expected to continue, until executive options are ‘under water’ or until corporations run out of funding for stock buybacks, whichever is first.

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Featured articles on inside pages

Stock buybacks

WSJ exposes the 9/11 caper

In a major exposé of misused executive options, the Wall Street Journal ran a front page article, reporting that as stocks sank after the the 9/11 attacks, scores of companies rushed to issue options to top officials. Some executives reaped millions.
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Securities Analysis

Innovative institutional research methods

The Crash of 2008 led to questions concerning the scope and quality of institutional investment research. The flood of open source investment data on the Internet presents opportunities to researchers.There are new ways to manage institutional research, including separation of fact-gathering from data analysis, out-sourcing, student-sourcing, and home-sourcing, financial taxonomy, and semantic wikis.
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US Politics

Why are the Super-Rich often liberals?

If we are to believe the old adage that, 'people vote their pocketbooks', why are so many of the Super-Rich ardent supporters of the Democratic Party? Why do the liberal Super-Rich seem to act in a way that is so contrary to their selfish interests and economic well-being? Here I show how capital flow analysis of the Federal Reserve flow of funds accounts provides an answer to this apparent conundrum. More ...

US equities

Stock values and cash dividends wither

Wall Street ballyhoo and flim-flam to the contrary, the year 2005 closed-out half a decade of misery and pain for the average investor in US equities. Average cash dividend yields never surpassed 3.8% during the period, and most of this was consumed by taxes and management expenses of the open-end mutual funds. More ...

US Bonds

The collapse of the dollar and US bonds?

The extreme spending of the Obama government, combined with irresponsible bank lending policies promoted by Barney Frank and Chris Dodd, portend rising interest rates, the collapse of the bond market, and the end of dollar supremacy. More ...

World Economy

Working off the US trade deficit

Foreigners hold $16.8 trillion in US financial assets as a result of selling more goods to Americans than they buy from them. Since the 'deficit' is in dollars, the US has no problem in 'paying it off'. More ...

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2010-08-20 16:03