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Subject: systemic risk

In finance, systemic risk is the risk of collapse of an entire financial system or entire market, as opposed to risk associated with any one individual entity, group or component of a system. It can be defined as “financial system instability, potentially catastrophic, caused or exacerbated by idiosyncratic events or conditions in financial intermediaries”. It refers to the risks imposed by interlinkages and interdependencies in a system or market, where the failure of a single entity or cluster of entities can cause a cascading failure, which could potentially bankrupt or bring down the entire system or market. It is also sometimes erroneously referred to as “systematic risk”. (Wikipedia Feb 2010)

Post Modern Security Analysis

Fish schools, covariance, and DYOR

Security market observes have long noted that investors seem to jump hither and yon, like the synchronized swimming of schools of fish.

This phenomenon is given the mathematical term ‘covariance’ and a numerical measure called ‘beta’.

Covariance is a central concept in Modern Portfolio Theory, and also in Technical Analysis with the saying ‘the trend is your friend’.

The McKinsey Heresy

Is big bank complexity irreversible?

In 1956, General Motors had profits of $1.1 billion

The root problem with big banks today is organizational and product line complexity. Excessive complexity in banks can be traced to the reorganization of Citibank in 1956, under Walter Wriston, following the advice of McKinsey and Company.

Under the McKinsey structure, banks were transformed into industrial-type marketing institutions with matrix organization by product line. Bank managers were paid to meet budgetary targets, rather than for being prudent bankers.

Featured articles on inside pages

Stock buybacks

WSJ exposes the 9/11 caper

In a major exposé of misused executive options, the Wall Street Journal ran a front page article, reporting that as stocks sank after the the 9/11 attacks, scores of companies rushed to issue options to top officials. Some executives reaped millions.
More ...

Securities Analysis

Some banks are too complex to manage

It is no secret that Citicorp no longer earns the same respect in financial circles as in days of yore. The problem is excessive complexity. This article describes the simplicity of the Citibank operation in 1956 when the bank was the world's most powerful financial institution.
More ...

US Politics

What is the future of private pension plans?

Between 1999 and 2002, US private pension funds lost US$ 1.2 trillion in value. It would almost seem that pension fund managers had been speculating with retirement money, attempting to beat each others' short-term performance statistics, with little interest in safeguarding the assets of plan beneficiaries. More ...

US equities

GAO favors overly-optimistic projections

In a study of the effect of the retirement of Baby Boomers on the price of equities, the GAO assumed that equities will provide real returns of 7% over the next decades. This figure is often cited in Wall Street promotional literature, but has no scientific basis.
More ...

US Bonds

The collapse of the dollar and US bonds?

The extreme spending of the Obama government, combined with irresponsible bank lending policies promoted by Barney Frank and Chris Dodd, portend rising interest rates, the collapse of the bond market, and the end of dollar supremacy. More ...

World Economy

What Is ‘International Liquidity’?

It used to be that the term 'international liquidity' meant the relative amount of resources available to a nation's monetary authorities that could be used to settle a balance of payments deficit. In the days of the gold standard, this would mean access to gold that could be used to redeem a nation's currency held by foreigners. More ...

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2010-11-12 16:03