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Subject: Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is a security analysis discipline for forecasting the future direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. (Wikipedia Feb 2010)

Information technology

Fundamental analysis and the data tsunami

Technical analysis: massaging price and volume data

Whereas, in the days of Benjamin Graham, an analyst could count on Standard Statistics to provide the essential facts, three-quarters of a century later, this is no longer true in the case of its successor, Standard & Poor’s.

The tsunami of free financial information and increasingly complex markets, have driven up the cost of traditional security analysis. The less expensive route, technical analysis, is now favored by many. We must move beyond Graham & Dodd if fact-based analysis is to remain relevant.

Post Modern Security Analysis

Fish schools, covariance, and DYOR

Security market observes have long noted that investors seem to jump hither and yon, like the synchronized swimming of schools of fish.

This phenomenon is given the mathematical term ‘covariance’ and a numerical measure called ‘beta’.

Covariance is a central concept in Modern Portfolio Theory, and also in Technical Analysis with the saying ‘the trend is your friend’.

The Post Stock Buyback Era

Seeking investment opportunities

On a tightrope ... without a net.

The Crash of 2008 signaled a turning point in capital markets. The stock buyback era seemed to have ended. The Efficient Market Hypothesis was discredited. The inability of market experts and major institutions to place a fair value on thousands of securities indicated basic problems in security analysis and the handling of freely available information.

This article describes new challenges facing fundamental security analysts in the early 21st century, and the consequent opportunities.

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Stock buybacks

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Corporations have argued that stock buybacks are equivalent to dividends. This article explains why this is not true and why suggesting buyback-dividend equivalency may constitute fraud.
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Are investors being misled?

Mutual funds are sold primarily on the basis of 'performance' measured by historical 'total return'.The famous Morningstar 'star' rating system is based on 'total return', in this case 'risk-adjusted total return' relative to funds of the same asset category.
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US Politics

The decline of mainstream media

In September 2009, President Obama dominated television in his attempt to sell his government-run health plan, despite massive public opposition. Mainstream media has falling revenues and market share as people turn to unbiased sources. More ...

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Do stocks offer protection against inflation?

There is a common belief that a managed, diversified portfolio of US common stocks provides protection against inflation. However, there is reason to question whether this protection currently exists.
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US Bonds

The collapse of the dollar and US bonds?

The extreme spending of the Obama government, combined with irresponsible bank lending policies promoted by Barney Frank and Chris Dodd, portend rising interest rates, the collapse of the bond market, and the end of dollar supremacy. More ...

World Economy

Signs of US losing its groove?

Thirty years ago, US income from abroad was more than double the amount of income that the US paid to the rest of the world. This year, or the next, this foreign income surplus may disappear forever. Is the US 'losing its groove'? More ...

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2010-10-29 16:02